Cyclone Arnab: Andhra Pradesh Braces for Landfall as IMD Warns of Extremely Heavy Rainfall and Flooding
Cyclone Arnab Landfall Forecast: Andhra Pradesh on High Alert
India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its National Bulletin No. 15 issued at 3:45 AM IST on October 27, has warned of severe weather conditions as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab approaches the Andhra Pradesh coast. The system is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of October 28.
According to the forecast, the cyclone is likely to make landfall with maximum sustained wind speeds of 115–125 kmph, with gusts reaching 140 kmph. Wind speeds could reach 135–145 kmph, with gusts up to 160 kmph, before the system begins to weaken slightly ahead of landfall.
The cyclone is expected to bring intense rainfall, coastal flooding, storm-surge inundation and significant disruption to transport, power supply, agriculture and communication infrastructure. The IMD has issued a red-message cyclone warning for Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha coastal areas.
Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast in Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh is expected to face the most immediate threat from Cyclone Arnab, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast across the state on October 27 and 28.
The IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall of 7–20 cm at a few places, along with extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more at isolated locations. These rainfall amounts could trigger waterlogging, flash flooding and the inundation of low-lying areas, particularly in vulnerable coastal locations.
The districts specifically covered under the cyclone’s wind warning include Anakapalli, Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, East Godavari, West Godavari, Konaseema, Krishna and Bapatla. Wind speeds in these districts could rise to 115–125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph, from the early morning to the forenoon of October 28.
Heavy rainfall is expected to continue at isolated places in north coastal Andhra Pradesh on October 29, even as the cyclone weakens after landfall.
The weather conditions could severely affect roads, railway infrastructure, electricity and communication networks. The IMD has warned of localised road flooding, waterlogging in low-lying areas, traffic congestion and major disruption to railway operations, including overhead power lines and signalling systems.
Storm Surge Threatens Low-Lying Coastal Areas
One of the most serious risks associated with Cyclone Arnab is the possibility of coastal inundation due to storm surge.
The IMD has warned that a storm surge of approximately 1.0–1.5 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of Andhra Pradesh during landfall. The maximum peak surge is expected near Kakinada and Yanam in the Union Territory of Puducherry.
The combination of storm surge, intense rainfall and strong winds could increase flooding risks in vulnerable coastal settlements. Low-lying neighbourhoods, coastal roads, fishing communities and areas with inadequate drainage may be particularly exposed.
The IMD has advised authorities to arrange the evacuation of vulnerable coastal residents and move people living in coastal huts to safer locations. Residents in affected areas have been advised to remain indoors and avoid staying in vulnerable structures.
The bulletin also warns of possible riverine, urban and coastal flooding, with landslides posing an additional risk in hilly areas.
Odisha Faces Extremely Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risks
Odisha is expected to experience worsening weather conditions as Cyclone Arnab approaches the coast and subsequently moves inland.
On October 27, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places in south Odisha, while isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over north Odisha.
The situation could intensify on October 28, when heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places, accompanied by extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations in south Odisha. North Odisha is also expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places.
Interior Odisha may experience heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated locations on October 29.
The IMD has specifically warned of strong winds in the southern Odisha districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri. Winds could reach 60–70 kmph, with gusts up to 80 kmph, during the early hours of October 28.
Heavy rainfall could cause waterlogging, flooding of roads, damage to standing crops and disruption to traffic. Vulnerable structures and agricultural plantations may also suffer damage.
Telangana and Chhattisgarh Brace for Intense Rainfall
The impact of Cyclone Arnab is expected to extend inland, with eastern Telangana and southern Chhattisgarh among the areas likely to receive heavy rainfall.
In Telangana, heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated places in eastern parts of the state on October 28. The districts of Khammam, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Mulugu and Mahabubabad are also covered by the IMD’s warning for strong winds.
Southern Chhattisgarh is likely to receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 27. On October 28, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected at a few places, with extremely heavy rainfall possible at isolated locations. The warning is forecast to shift towards northern Chhattisgarh on October 29, when extremely heavy rainfall may occur at isolated places.
Sukma, Dantewada, Bijapur and Bastar are among the southern Chhattisgarh districts covered by the strong-wind warning.
The IMD has cautioned that the weather system could cause flooding, damage to crops, localised road inundation and disruption to transport. Hilly areas may also face landslide risks.
Rainfall Warning Extended to Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal
The cyclone’s influence is expected to bring heavy rainfall to several eastern states over the coming days.
Jharkhand is likely to receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 28, followed by heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated locations on October 29.
Bihar may experience heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29 and 30, with heavy rainfall continuing at isolated locations on October 31.
In Gangetic West Bengal, coastal districts are likely to receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 28 and 29. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are forecast to experience heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29 and 30.
These conditions could lead to waterlogging in urban areas, disruption of road traffic and damage to standing crops. Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas have been advised to follow local weather alerts and official instructions.
Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh Also on Alert
The IMD has extended its rainfall warnings to parts of central and northern India as the system is forecast to weaken while moving inland.
In Vidarbha, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places on October 28, followed by heavy rainfall at isolated locations in eastern Vidarbha on October 29.
East Madhya Pradesh is expected to receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 28 and 30, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast at isolated locations on October 29.
East Uttar Pradesh faces a significant rainfall threat on October 29, when heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places are forecast. Northeastern Uttar Pradesh may receive heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated locations on October 30, followed by heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 31.
The rainfall could increase the risk of localised flooding and waterlogging, especially in areas with poor drainage and already saturated ground.
Transport, Agriculture and Coastal Operations at Risk
The IMD has warned of extensive damage in coastal Andhra Pradesh, including the destruction of thatched houses, extensive damage to kutcha houses and possible damage to some pucca structures. Trees may be uprooted, power and communication poles bent or brought down, and agricultural plantations severely affected.
Standing crops, orchards, banana and papaya plants, coconut trees and other horticultural crops could suffer widespread damage.
Road and rail services may be disrupted by flooding, fallen trees, damaged overhead power lines and signalling failures. Authorities have been advised to regulate rail and road traffic carefully and issue appropriate travel advisories.
Fishing operations have been advised to remain suspended in affected sea areas. Fishermen should not venture into the west-central Bay of Bengal, along the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts and other specified adjoining coastal waters during the warning period. Shipping, port and offshore operators have also been advised to review their preparedness.
Authorities Urged to Prioritise Evacuation and Flood Preparedness
With landfall forecast for the forenoon of October 28, the coming hours are critical for coastal preparedness. The IMD has called for the relocation of vulnerable coastal residents, suspension of fishing operations and careful regulation of transport.
People should avoid waterlogged roads, coastal areas and vulnerable structures, and follow official evacuation instructions. The risk of flooding may persist beyond landfall because heavy rainfall is forecast across several inland states through October 31.
The IMD’s bulletin, issued early on October 27, represents the forecast available at that time. Residents and authorities should continue to monitor subsequent bulletins for updated rainfall forecasts, wind warnings and landfall-related advisories.
