Cyclone Akvan Likely to Intensify into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by November 19; IMD Issues Warnings for Bay of Bengal
Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal to become Cyclonic Storm on November 16 and Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 17; wind speed may reach 130 kmph with gusts up to 145 kmph by November 19
IMD warns of heavy to very heavy rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal; fishermen advised to return to coasts and avoid venturing into several parts of the Bay of Bengal until November 20
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first National Bulletin on the depression over the Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal, warning that the weather system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm on November 16, 2026, and subsequently strengthen into a Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 17. The system may further intensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by November 19, with maximum sustained wind speeds reaching 120–130 kmph and gusts up to 145 kmph.
According to National Bulletin No. 1 (BOB/10/2026), issued at 1030 hours IST on November 15, the depression developed after the Well Marked Low Pressure Area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and intensified.
At 0530 hours IST on November 15, the depression was centred over the Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.0°N and longitude 86.9°E.
The system was located approximately 700 km west-southwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 860 km east-southeast of Chennai, 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,160 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha.
The IMD has forecast that the system will continue moving north-northwestwards and intensify over the central parts of the South and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal before moving towards the Westcentral Bay of Bengal.
Cyclone Akvan Likely to Develop into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
The weather system will be named Akvan, a name contributed by Iran, once it intensifies into a Cyclonic Storm.
According to the IMD’s forecast, the depression is expected to strengthen gradually over the next four days. It is likely to become a Deep Depression by November 15 evening, a Cyclonic Storm on November 16 and a Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 17.
Further intensification is forecast on November 18 and 19, with the system potentially reaching the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm category.
The following table presents the IMD’s forecast position, wind speed and intensity of the system.
Forecast Track and Intensity of the Weather System
| Date and time (IST) | Forecast position (Latitude/Longitude) | Maximum sustained wind speed (kmph) | Category |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 0530 hrs | 9.0°N / 86.9°E | 40–50, gusting to 60 | Depression |
| Nov 15, 1730 hrs | 10.0°N / 86.5°E | 50–60, gusting to 70 | Deep Depression |
| Nov 16, 0530 hrs | 10.6°N / 86.5°E | 55–65, gusting to 75 | Deep Depression |
| Nov 16, 1730 hrs | 11.3°N / 86.4°E | 75–85, gusting to 95 | Cyclonic Storm |
| Nov 17, 0530 hrs | 12.0°N / 86.3°E | 80–90, gusting to 100 | Cyclonic Storm |
| Nov 17, 1730 hrs | 12.6°N / 86.1°E | 90–100, gusting to 110 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| Nov 18, 0530 hrs | 13.2°N / 85.9°E | 100–110, gusting to 120 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| Nov 18, 1730 hrs | 13.2°N / 85.7°E | 110–120, gusting to 130 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| Nov 19, 0530 hrs | 14.4°N / 85.5°E | 120–130, gusting to 145 | Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
The forecast indicates a significant increase in wind intensity as the system progresses north-northwestwards. However, the table represents forecast positions and intensities, and the IMD will issue updated information as the system develops.
Rainfall Warning for Andaman Islands and Eastern Coastal States
The IMD has issued rainfall warnings for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations during November 14–16.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 18. On November 19, north coastal Andhra Pradesh may experience light to moderate rainfall at most places, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated locations.
Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall is expected at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 18. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated locations on November 19 and 20.
Gangetic West Bengal: Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 19 and 20.
The IMD has advised authorities in the potentially affected regions to monitor subsequent weather bulletins and take appropriate precautionary measures.
Wind Speed Warning Across Different Parts of Bay of Bengal
The meteorological department has issued separate wind warnings for the Andaman Sea, Southeast Bay of Bengal, Southwest Bay of Bengal, Central Bay of Bengal and Northwest Bay of Bengal.
The wind speed is expected to increase considerably as the depression strengthens into a cyclonic system.
| Region | Forecast wind conditions |
|---|---|
| Andaman Sea and along/off Andaman and Nicobar Islands | Squally winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, likely until November 17 |
| Southeast Bay of Bengal | 40–50 kmph on November 15; increasing to 55–65 kmph, gusting to 75 kmph, from November 16 morning. Gale winds of 60–70 kmph, gusting to 80 kmph, from November 16 noon, followed by 80–90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, for the subsequent 24 hours |
| Southwest Bay of Bengal | 40–50 kmph on November 15; increasing to 55–65 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, from November 16 morning. Gale winds of 65–75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, from November 16 noon; increasing to 85–95 kmph, gusting to 105 kmph, from November 17 morning and 100–110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph, from November 18 morning for 12 hours |
| Central Bay of Bengal | 45–55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, on November 16; increasing to 65–85 kmph, gusting to 95 kmph, from November 16 evening. Winds may reach 90–100 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph, and subsequently 100–130 kmph, gusting to 145 kmph, from November 18 morning for two days |
| Northwest Bay of Bengal | Squally winds of 45–55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, likely on November 19 |
Sea Conditions Likely to Deteriorate
The IMD has also warned of deteriorating sea conditions across different parts of the Bay of Bengal.
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Andaman Sea: Rough to very rough sea conditions are likely to prevail until November 17.
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Southeast Bay of Bengal: Rough to very rough conditions are expected until November 16, becoming very rough to high from November 17 to 18.
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Southwest Bay of Bengal: Rough to very rough conditions are likely on November 15, becoming very rough to high on November 16 and high from November 17 to 19.
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Central Bay of Bengal: Rough to very rough conditions are expected on November 16. Conditions may deteriorate to high to very high from November 17 to 18 and become very high to phenomenal from November 19 for the subsequent 24 hours.
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Northwest Bay of Bengal: Rough to very rough sea conditions are likely on November 19.
Fishermen Advised Not to Venture into Bay of Bengal
In view of the expected strengthening of the weather system and deteriorating sea conditions, the IMD has advised fishermen currently at sea to return to the coast by November 15, 2026.
Fishermen have been specifically advised not to venture into the following areas during the specified periods:
| Marine region | Period of restriction |
|---|---|
| Andaman Sea and along/off Andaman and Nicobar Islands | Until November 17 |
| Southeast Bay of Bengal | Until November 17 |
| Southwest Bay of Bengal | November 15–18 |
| Central Bay of Bengal | November 16–20 |
| Northwest Bay of Bengal | November 19–20 |
Fisheries departments and fishing harbour authorities have been asked to alert fishermen and closely monitor subsequent marine weather warnings issued by the IMD.
Possible Impact and Precautionary Measures
The IMD has highlighted the possibility of localised flooding of roads, waterlogging in low-lying areas and closure of underpasses, particularly in urban areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Heavy rainfall may also lead to occasional reductions in visibility and disruption of road traffic in major cities, resulting in increased travel time. Minor damage to kutcha roads and damage to horticulture and standing crops due to inundation are also among the expected impacts.
The department has advised shipping companies, port authorities and offshore operators to review their operational preparedness and monitor subsequent forecasts for possible restrictions on weather-sensitive activities between November 15 and 20.
Maritime authorities have also been advised to review communication arrangements, vessel-tracking systems and search-and-rescue preparedness, particularly for vessels operating in areas likely to be affected by the developing cyclone.
The IMD has emphasised that restrictions on fishing, shipping, port operations and marine tourism should be guided by subsequent forecasts and area-specific warnings.
