India Meteorological Department Provides Detailed Weather Update for the Next Two Weeks

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its latest weather report, outlining observed features for the week ending February 28, 2024, and providing an extended range forecast for the following two weeks.

Salient Observed Features:

1. Western Disturbances (WD): Three WDs moved across extreme northern parts of India, causing isolated light to moderate rainfall/snow over western Himalayan states. Central India experienced light to moderate rainfall and thunderstorms, with isolated hailstorms reported in various regions.
2. Heavy Rainfall: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Tripura witnessed heavy rainfall due to moisture incursions from the north Bay of Bengal.
3. Temperature Extremes: Erode, Tamil Nadu, recorded the highest maximum temperature at 39.4°C, while Karnal, Haryana, recorded the lowest minimum temperature at 5.0°C.
4. Rainfall Analysis: The cumulative All India Rainfall departure from its long-period average (LPA) was -33%, with seasonal cumulative rainfall at -32%. Northwest India saw a departure of -45% from the LPA.

Large Scale Features:

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index indicates an eastward propagation towards phase 4 during the first week, favoring no cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea. Incoherent MJO movement within phase 4 is expected during the forecast period.

Forecast for Next Two Weeks:

Week 1 (February 29 – March 6, 2024):

• A Western Disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan Region and plains of northwest India, bringing widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, and hailstorms.
• Light to moderate rainfall is expected over central and eastern parts of the country, with isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall over specific regions.
• Isolated rainfall activity is forecasted over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Week 2 (March 7 – March 13, 2024):

• Light to moderate rainfall/snowfall is anticipated over the Western Himalayan Region and scattered rainfall over south Peninsular India.
• Overall, rainfall activity is expected to be near normal over certain regions but below normal over others.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to rise gradually over most parts of the country.

Conclusion:

The IMD’s comprehensive weather update provides valuable insights into observed features and forecasted weather patterns, aiding stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding agricultural activities, disaster preparedness, and public safety measures. Citizens are advised to stay updated with local forecasts and heed any warnings issued by authorities to mitigate potential risks associated with adverse weather conditions.