Cyclone Murasu Likely to Intensify Over Bay of Bengal; Andhra Pradesh Braces for Extremely Heavy Rainfall
IMD Forecasts Cyclonic Storm Murasu by November 1; System Expected to Approach Andhra Pradesh Coast Around November 2
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a national weather bulletin warning of a developing cyclonic system over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea. The depression, which formed on October 31, 2026, is likely to intensify into a deep depression within the next 12 hours and subsequently develop into a cyclonic storm, bringing heavy to extremely heavy rainfall and strong winds to several coastal states.
According to IMD’s National Bulletin No. 1, issued at 3:30 PM on October 31, the well-marked low-pressure area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions moved west-northwestwards and concentrated into a depression at 11:30 AM on Saturday.
The system was located near latitude 10.0°N and longitude 90.2°E, approximately 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram, 300 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar, 1,140 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1,200 km southeast of Machilipatnam.
The weather system is very likely to continue moving west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours. It is subsequently expected to strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the Southeast and adjoining Southwest and West-Central Bay of Bengal.
The IMD has forecast that the system will reach the West-Central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the evening of November 2.
Cyclonic Storm Likely to Develop by November 1
The IMD’s forecast indicates a gradual strengthening of the weather system over the next three days, accompanied by an increase in wind speed.
At 11:30 AM on October 31, the system was classified as a depression, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40–50 kmph and gusts reaching 60 kmph.
By 11:30 PM on October 31, it is expected to intensify into a deep depression, with wind speeds increasing to 50–60 kmph and gusts reaching 70 kmph.
The system is likely to become a cyclonic storm by 11:30 AM on November 1, with sustained wind speeds of 60–70 kmph and gusts reaching 80 kmph.
Its intensity is expected to increase further, with winds reaching 80–90 kmph and gusts up to 100 kmph by November 2. The system is forecast to maintain this intensity until the evening of November 2.
Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected. By November 3 morning, it may continue as a cyclonic storm with wind speeds of 70–80 kmph, before weakening into a deep depression by the night of November 3.
Andhra Pradesh Faces Heavy to Extremely Heavy Rainfall Alert
The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall activity across parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Telangana between November 1 and November 4.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places, accompanied by heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 1.
The situation is likely to intensify on November 2, when heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected at a few places, with extremely heavy rainfall likely at isolated locations. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also forecast at isolated places on November 3, followed by heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 4.
The rainfall warning indicates that coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh could experience intense precipitation as the system approaches the state’s coastline.
In South Odisha, light to moderate rainfall is expected at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 2. The intensity is likely to increase on November 3 and 4, when heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated places.
Rayalaseema is also likely to receive light to moderate rainfall at many places, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 2 and 3.
In Telangana, light to moderate rainfall is expected at many places, accompanied by heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 2 and 3.
Tamil Nadu is likely to receive light to moderate rainfall at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated locations on November 2 and 3.
Strong Winds Expected Along Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu Coasts
The IMD has issued warnings of squally weather and gale-force winds over several parts of the Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal regions.
Over the Southeast Bay of Bengal, winds reaching 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, are prevailing on October 31. Wind speeds are likely to increase to 55–65 kmph, with gusts reaching 75 kmph, by the early morning of November 1.
Over the western parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, winds may further strengthen to 65–75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, from November 1 forenoon until the morning of November 2.
The West-Central Bay of Bengal is likely to experience squally weather from the morning of November 1. Wind speeds may increase to 65–75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, from the afternoon of November 1.
The most intense wind conditions are expected between November 2 morning and November 3 forenoon, when wind speeds could reach 80–90 kmph, with gusts up to 100 kmph.
Along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast, squally winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, are likely to commence from the evening of November 1. These winds are expected to strengthen to 65–75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, by the afternoon of November 2.
By the evening of November 2, wind speeds may reach 80–90 kmph, with gusts up to 100 kmph, continuing until the forenoon of November 3.
Similar squally weather is forecast along the North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, where winds could reach 55–65 kmph, gusting to 75 kmph, between the morning of November 2 and the morning of November 3.
The South Odisha coast and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal are also likely to experience squally weather from the evening of November 2, with wind speeds reaching 50–60 kmph and gusts up to 70 kmph on November 3.
Sea Conditions Likely to Deteriorate
The IMD has warned that sea conditions will become rough to very rough over several parts of the Bay of Bengal as the depression intensifies.
Over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands, rough to very rough sea conditions are likely to continue until the morning of November 1.
The Southeast and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal may experience very rough to high sea conditions from the forenoon of November 1 until the morning of November 2.
In the West-Central Bay of Bengal, sea conditions are expected to deteriorate from November 1, becoming very rough to high from the afternoon of November 1 until the forenoon of November 3.
Along the Andhra Pradesh coast, sea conditions are likely to become rough to very rough from the evening of November 1 and may deteriorate to high conditions by the afternoon of November 2, continuing until the forenoon of November 3.
Rough to very rough sea conditions are also forecast along the North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from November 1 to the morning of November 4.
Fishermen Advised Not to Venture into the Sea
In view of the developing weather system, the IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into several affected maritime zones.
The restrictions cover the Andaman Sea and areas along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until the morning of November 1.
Fishermen have also been advised to avoid the Southeast and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal on November 1 and 2, and the Southwest Bay of Bengal from the morning of November 1 until the morning of November 4.
Fishing activities have been discouraged over the West-Central Bay of Bengal from the morning of November 1 until the afternoon of November 4.
Along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast, fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea from the morning of November 2 until the afternoon of November 4.
Similar restrictions apply to the North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from the morning of November 1 until the morning of November 4. Fishermen operating in the Northwest Bay of Bengal and along the South Odisha coast have also been advised to remain ashore from the evening of November 2 until the afternoon of November 4.
Authorities Asked to Step Up Preparedness
The IMD has advised fisheries departments and fishing harbour authorities to alert fishermen and closely monitor subsequent marine weather warnings.
Shipping companies, port authorities and offshore operators have been asked to review their operational preparedness and monitor updated forecasts for possible restrictions on weather-sensitive activities.
Maritime authorities have also been advised to review communication systems, vessel-tracking arrangements and search-and-rescue preparedness, particularly in areas likely to be affected by strong winds and deteriorating sea conditions.
The IMD has stated that any restrictions on coastal tourism, fishing, shipping, port operations and other marine activities should be guided by subsequent forecasts and location-specific warnings.
