“Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” over Arabian Sea: Cyclone Alert for Gujarat & Diu coasts 

The Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area moved nearly north-northwestwards with a speed of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 15th May, 2021 over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea near latitude 12.5°N and longitude 72.5°E, about 160 km north-northwest of Amini Divi, 350 km south-southwest of Panjim-Goa, 960 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 1050 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliya around 18th May Afternoon / evening.

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall:

 Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May and heavy falls at isolated places on 16th May.

 Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on 15th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th& 17th May.

 Tamil Nadu (Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May.

 Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 15th and heavy falls at isolated places on 16th .

 Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan on 15th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16th .

 Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from 16th May afternoon, at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 17th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch on 18th .  Southwest Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 18th & 19th May.

(ii) Wind warning

 Squally weather with wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely over Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.

 Gale wind speed reaching 75 – 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph is prevailing over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from 16 th May morning.  Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala – Karnataka coasts on 15th May.

 Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph likely along & off south Maharashtra & Goa coasts on 15th and Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off Maharashtra –Goa coasts on16th May.

 Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on 17th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea from 18th morning and along & off Saurashtra & Kutch coasts (Devbhumi Dwarka & Porbandar) and 120 -150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Jamnagar districts of Gujarat from 18th May afternoon / evening for subsequent 06 hours. Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100% Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.

(iii) Sea condition

 Sea conditions will be very rough over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.  Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be high to very high on 15th & very high to Phenomenal on 16th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17th & 18th May.  Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 15th , very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 15th& 16th May. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 18th morning.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

 Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala – Karnataka – Goa – Maharashtra coasts.  Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17th May.  The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18th May.  Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Devbhumi Dwarka, Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Jamnagar districts of Gujarat:

 Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

 Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

 Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.

 Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.

 Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.  Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Amreli, Gir Somnath, Rajkot & Morbi districts of Gujarat:

 Damage to thatched huts.  Minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches.  Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads.  Some damage to crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards.  Inundation of low lying areas due to Heavy rainfall. (vii) Action Suggested:  Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas.  Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.  People in affected areas to remain indoors.  Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.