March-April-May seasons are likely to warmer than normal over northwest, west and central India

The March-April-May (MAM) season average temperatures are likely to warmer than normal over most of the meteorological subdivisions of northwest, west and central India and some subdivisions from south India. Near normal temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions.

Above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the core heat wave (HW) zone during the season (March-May).

Forecast for the MAM Season (March to May2020)

Fig.1, Fig.2 & Fig.3 show the sub-divisional forecasts for averaged maximum, minimum and mean temperature anomalies (departures from the long term normal) respectively for March to May 2020 (MAM) season.The forecast indicates MAM season averaged temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥0.5 C over northwest, west and central India and some subdivisions from south India. Near normal temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions.

The season averaged maximum temperature (Fig.1)is likely to be warmer than normal by >1C over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh. It is likely to be warmer than normal by ≥0.5C to <1C over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha North interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures (between -0.5C and 0.5C).

The season averaged minimum temperatures (Fig.2) are likely to be warmer than normal by >1C over Uttarakhand. It is likely to be warmer than normal by ≥0.5C to <1C over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), Arunachal Pradesh, East and West Rajasthan, East and West Uttar Pradesh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience normal minimum temperatures (between -0.5C and 0.5C).

The season averaged mean temperatures (Fig.3) are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1 C over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Rajasthan. It is likely to be warmer than normal by ≥0.5C to <1 C over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD),East and West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures (between -0.5 C and 0.5 C).

There is about 43% probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during March to May 2020 to be above normal. (Fig.4). Core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and met subdivisions of Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that normal to slightly above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the core HW zone during the season.

ENSO conditions in the Pacific

Ocean Currently, warm ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates cooling of SSTs in coming season and ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue for the entire forecast period.