IMD Summer Forecast : April-May-June average maximum temperatures to be warmer than normal

The season averaged maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by
0.5 °C to 1 °C over East and West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya
Maharashtra, Marathawada, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and
Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience normal maximum temperatures (Departure from normal
within -0.5 °C and 0.5 °C).

The season averaged minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by
more than 1°C over East and West Rajasthan and Gujarat region. It is likely to be warmer than normal by
0.5 °C to 1 °C over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), East and West Uttar Pradesh, East
and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa,
Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka,
Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience normal minimum temperatures
(Departure from normal within -0.5 °C and 0.5 °C).

The season averaged mean temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by more
than 1°Cover East and West Rajasthan. It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 °C to 1 °C over
Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat region,
Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North and
South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to
experience near normal mean temperatures (Departure from normal within -0.5 °C and 0.5 °C).

There is about 40% probability of maximum temperatures in the Core HW zone during April to
June 2020 to be above normal. Core HW zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada,
Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that slightly above normal
frequency of heat wave conditions likely in the core HW zone during the season.

3. ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean
Currently, warm ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The
latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during the entire
forecast period

4. Extended Range Forecast Services
IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7 –day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks)
of maximum and minimum temperatures over the country updated every week. This is based on the
Multi-model ensemble dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System currently operational at IMD, New
Delhi.