The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its latest report on the current weather status and extended range forecast for the next two weeks, covering the period from February 8 to February 22, 2024.
Salient Observed Features for the Week Ending February 7, 2024:
- An active Western Disturbance (WD) influenced northwest India from February 3 to 5, 2024, resulting in light to moderate rain/snow in the western Himalayan region and rainfall and thunderstorms in the adjoining plains of northwest India. This marked the second active WD impacting the region.
- Strong surface winds of 15-25 kmph prevailed over the plains of Northwest India from February 6 to 8.
- Isolated dense fog was observed over several states including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha on various days throughout the week.
- Cold wave conditions were experienced in isolated pockets of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana on February 7.
- Temperature extremes ranged from a maximum of 38.5°C recorded at Kurnool (Rayalaseema) on February 7 to a minimum of 1.0°C at Fursatganj (East Uttar Pradesh) on February 1.
Analysis of Weekly Overall Rainfall Distribution:
- The weekly cumulative All India Rainfall departure from its long period average (LPA) till February 7, 2024, was 80%.
- Seasonal cumulative rainfall departure during the winter season from January 1 to February 7, 2024, was -30% for the country as a whole and -47% over northwest India.
- Rainfall distribution varied across different regions of India, with notable departures from normal levels.
Large-Scale Features:
- Moderate to strong El Niño conditions prevailed over the equatorial Pacific, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over most parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions were observed over the Indian Ocean, with forecasts indicating a likely weakening and transition to neutral conditions.
- Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index showed looping and was in phase 7, with forecasts suggesting a slowing down as it approached phase 8 during the first week.
Forecast for the Next Two Weeks: Week 1 (February 8 to 14, 2024):
- Light to moderate isolated to scattered rainfall/snowfall expected over certain regions including Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Odisha, and others.
- Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning likely over several states including Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Chhattisgarh.
- Light isolated rainfall forecasted for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Kerala.
- No active Western Disturbance expected over northwest India during the week.
Week 2 (February 15 to 21, 2024):
- Gradual rise in minimum temperatures anticipated, with near-normal temperatures over most parts of the country except the Western Himalayan Region.
- No Dense Fog and Cold day conditions expected.
- No possibility of cold wave in any parts of the country.
The IMD’s comprehensive report provides valuable insights into current weather conditions and forecasts, aiding individuals and authorities in making informed decisions and preparations.