Cyclone Michaung Update: Pre-Cyclone Alert Issued for Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry Coasts

In a weather development of concern, Cyclone Michaung is brewing over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, prompting meteorological authorities to issue a pre-cyclone watch for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised a Yellow Message, signaling the need for heightened vigilance in the potentially affected areas.

As of the latest observations, the depression over the Southwest Bay of Bengal has been steadily progressing west-northwestwards at a speed of 09 kmph. At 2330 hours IST on December 1, 2023, the system centered itself near Latitude 10.3°N and Longitude 85.3°E. This positions it about 630 km east-southeast of Puducherry, 630 km east-southeast of Chennai, 740 km southeast of Nellore, 810 km southeast of Bapatla, and 800 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam.

The forecast indicates a west-northwestward movement, with expectations of intensifying into a Deep Depression within the next 12 hours. Subsequently, the system is projected to evolve into a Cyclonic Storm over the Southwest Bay of Bengal by December 3rd. The trajectory then shifts northwestwards, approaching the vicinity of south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts by the forenoon of December 4th. A further northward movement is anticipated, running almost parallel and in close proximity to the south Andhra Pradesh coast, culminating in a Cyclonic Storm crossing between Nellore and Machilipatnam during the forenoon of December 5th. Maximum sustained wind speeds are expected to range from 80-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph.

India Meteorological Department’s Track and Intensity Forecasts:

• 01.12.23/2330: 10.3/85.3, 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph, Depression
• 02.12.23/1130: 10.9/84.3, 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph, Deep Depression
• 02.12.23/2330: 11.6/83.1, 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 03.12.23/1130: 12.3/82.0, 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 03.12.23/2330: 13.1/81.1, 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 04.12.23/1130: 14.0/80.4, 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 04.12.23/2330: 14.9/80.4, 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 05.12.23/1130: 15.9/80.6, 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 05.12.23/2330: 16.9/81.4, 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph, Cyclonic Storm
• 06.12.23/1130: 18.0/82.9, 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph, Depression

Warnings Issued:

• Rainfall Warning:
  • North Coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry can expect light to moderate rainfall on December 2nd, intensifying from December 3rd with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected at isolated locations.
  • Coastal Andhra Pradesh is forecasted to experience light to moderate rainfall on December 3rd and 4th, with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in certain areas.
  • Rayalaseema may witness light to moderate rainfall on December 3rd and 4th.
  • Odisha may experience light to moderate rainfall on December 4th, with isolated heavy rainfall anticipated on the same day and the following day.
• Wind Warning:
  • Southeast Bay of Bengal: Squally weather conditions expected with wind speeds reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over the next 24 hours.
  • Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu-Puducherry Coasts: Squally winds increasing gradually, becoming Gale Wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph from December 2nd night and 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph from December 3rd evening for the subsequent 24 hours.
  • Westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off south Andhra Pradesh Coast: Squally winds likely, becoming Gale Wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph from December 3rd evening for the subsequent 12 hours.
  • Along & off north Andhra Pradesh Coast: Squally winds reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely from December 4th evening, increasing gradually to 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph from December 5th evening.
• Sea Condition:
  • Southeast Bay of Bengal: Rough to very Rough Sea condition expected over Southeast Bay of Bengal on December 2nd, improving thereafter.
  • Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu-Puducherry Coasts: Currently experiencing Rough to Very Rough sea conditions, likely to become very rough to high from December 3rd morning for the subsequent 24 hours and improving gradually thereafter.
  • Westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off south Andhra Pradesh Coast: Rough to Very Rough sea condition likely from December 2nd evening, becoming very rough to high from December 3rd morning till December 5th.
  • Along & off North Andhra Pradesh Coast: Rough to Very Rough sea condition likely from December 4th evening till December 5th.
  • Along & off South Odisha Coast: Rough to Very Rough sea condition likely from December 4th evening till December 5th.
• Fishermen Warning:
  • Fishermen are advised not to venture into certain areas from December 2nd to December 5th. Those at sea are urged to return to the coast within the next 12 hours.
• Storm Surge:
  • A storm surge of about 1-1.5 meters above astronomical tide is anticipated, likely to inundate south Coastal Andhra Pradesh districts at the time of landfall.
• Damage Expected:
  • Coastal districts of South Andhra Pradesh and adjoining coastal districts of North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry may experience damage to thatched huts, vulnerable structures, tree branches, power and communication lines, roads, and crops.
• Action Suggested:
  • Authorities recommend the total suspension of fishing operations, regulation of surface transport and shipping, relocation of coastal hutment dwellers to safer places, and urging people in affected areas to remain.