2024 Southwest Monsoon Forecast Indicates Above-Normal Rainfall Across Many Regions
New Delhi, May 27, 2024: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its updated long-range forecast outlook for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season, spanning June to September. According to the forecast, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA), indicating above-normal rainfall.
Key highlights of the forecast include:
- Region-Wise Outlook: Central India and South Peninsular India are expected to experience above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA), while Northwest India is likely to see normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA). Northeast India, on the other hand, may witness below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA).
- Monsoon Core Zone: The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which includes most rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
- Monthly Rainfall and Temperature: June 2024 is expected to witness normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) across the country. Above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are forecasted for most parts of the country, with above-normal heatwave days likely over Northwest India and adjoining areas of Central India. However, normal to below-normal temperatures are anticipated in many parts of the southern peninsular India.
- Climate Conditions: El Niño conditions observed earlier have weakened into weak El Niño conditions, transitioning towards ENSO neutral conditions. Climate model forecasts suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions will be established at the beginning of the monsoon season, with the possibility of La Niña conditions developing later. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing, but positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
The IMD’s forecast provides valuable insights for preparedness and planning across various sectors, including agriculture, water resource management, and disaster mitigation, ensuring timely responses to weather variations and their impacts.
