Low-Pressure System over Andaman Sea May Become Depression; IMD Issues Fishermen Warning

A significant change in weather conditions has been observed across eastern, northern and Himalayan regions of India over the past few days following the impact of Cyclone Arnab. Several states, including Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, experienced cloudy skies and rainfall at various locations. Rain and snowfall were also reported in parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh under the influence of a Western Disturbance.

However, weather activity across northern India is expected to remain relatively subdued ahead of Diwali, as the low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is currently expected to bring rainfall mainly to parts of southern India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its special message issued at 2 pm on October 30, has indicated that the system over the South Andaman Sea is likely to intensify into a depression and subsequently move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The weather system is currently positioned over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. According to the IMD, the low-pressure area moved west-northwestwards from its previous position and was located over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands at 8:30 am on October 30.

Low-Pressure Area Likely to Become Depression by October 31

The IMD has forecast that the system will continue moving west-northwestwards and is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of the Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands around October 31.

After intensifying into a depression, the system is likely to continue moving west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast during the following two days.

The movement and development of the system will be closely monitored by the weather department. Its further intensity and impact will depend on subsequent meteorological developments and forecasts.

The latest outlook indicates that the system could influence weather and marine conditions over the southeast, east-central, southwest and west-central Bay of Bengal during the October 30–November 3 period.

Squally Winds Expected Over Bay of Bengal

The IMD has issued warnings of squally weather over the Andaman Sea, adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands and several parts of the Bay of Bengal.

Over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands, squally weather with wind speeds of 35–45 kmph, gusting up to 55 kmph, is very likely on October 30 and 31.

Similar wind conditions are expected over adjoining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on October 30.

The wind intensity is likely to increase on October 31, with speeds reaching 40–50 kmph and gusting up to 60 kmph over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and areas along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

On November 1, winds reaching 45–55 kmph, with gusts up to 65 kmph, are likely over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.

The southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal are also likely to experience squally weather. Wind speeds of 35–45 kmph, gusting up to 55 kmph, are expected on October 31. These may increase to 40–50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, on November 1 and 45–55 kmph, gusting up to 65 kmph, on November 2.

Rough to Very Rough Sea Conditions Forecast

The developing weather system is also expected to affect sea conditions across several maritime zones.

According to the IMD, rough sea conditions are very likely over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands on October 30 and 31.

The southeast Bay of Bengal and areas along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also likely to experience rough seas on October 30. Conditions may deteriorate further, becoming rough to very rough over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on October 31 and November 1.

Over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, rough sea conditions are likely on October 31. These conditions may become rough to very rough over the west-central and southeast Bay of Bengal on November 1 and 2.

The IMD has advised maritime stakeholders to remain alert and monitor subsequent weather bulletins before undertaking weather-sensitive operations.

IMD Advises Fishermen Not to Venture into Sea

In view of the expected deterioration in marine conditions, the IMD has issued a region-wise warning advising fishermen not to venture into the affected sea areas.

The restrictions advised by the weather department are as follows:

• Andaman Sea and areas along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Fishermen should not venture into the sea until October 31.

• Southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal: Fishing activities should be avoided from October 31 to November 1.

• West-central and southwest Bay of Bengal: Fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas from November 1 to 3.

The IMD has also advised fisheries departments and fishing harbour authorities to alert fishermen and closely monitor subsequent marine weather warnings. Fishermen have been asked to plan their activities strictly according to the latest area-specific advisories.

Ports, Shipping and Maritime Authorities Asked to Remain Alert

The weather department has advised shipping companies, port authorities and offshore operators to review their operational preparedness in view of the expected squally winds and rough sea conditions.

Maritime authorities have also been asked to review communication systems, vessel-tracking arrangements and search-and-rescue preparedness, particularly for vessels operating in areas likely to be affected by the developing system.

Any restrictions on coastal tourism, fishing, shipping, port operations and other marine activities should be decided based on subsequent forecasts and warnings issued by the IMD.

No Major Weather Activity Expected Over North India Before Diwali

Meanwhile, the recent rainfall across eastern and northern India was associated with the changing weather conditions following Cyclone Arnab, while Western Disturbance activity contributed to rain and snowfall in parts of the Himalayan region.

With the current low-pressure system expected to move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, its immediate weather impact is likely to remain focused on southern and maritime regions. No significant fresh weather activity is indicated over northern India ahead of Diwali in the current outlook.