India Meteorological Department: Long Range Forecast for November 2024
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its long-range forecast for rainfall and temperatures for November 2024, providing key insights into expected weather patterns across the country.
Highlights of the Forecast
| Parameter | Details |
|---|---|
| Monthly Rainfall | South Peninsular India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall (>123% LPA). |
| National Rainfall | Overall, normal rainfall is expected (77-123% LPA) across the country, with some areas experiencing below-normal rainfall. |
| Maximum Temperatures | Above-normal maximum temperatures anticipated in northeast and east-central India, with normal to below-normal temperatures in parts of northwest and west-central India. |
| Minimum Temperatures | Most areas are expected to have above-normal minimum temperatures, except some parts of northwest India where normal to below-normal temperatures are likely. |
| ENSO Conditions | Currently neutral ENSO conditions, with a potential shift towards La Niña by November-December. Neutral IOD conditions are also expected to continue. |
Rainfall Forecast
The monthly rainfall for South Peninsular India, which includes five meteorological subdivisions, is projected to be above normal. The rainfall Long Period Average (LPA) for this region in November is approximately 118.7 mm.
| Subdivision | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|
| Tamil Nadu | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
| Puducherry & Karaikkal | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
| Coastal Andhra Pradesh | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
| Rayalaseema | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
| Kerala & Mahe | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
| South Interior Karnataka | Above normal (>123% of LPA) |
For the country as a whole, the expected rainfall distribution is as follows:
| Region | Rainfall Expectation |
|---|---|
| Most of India | Normal to above normal (77-123% of LPA) |
| Northwest India | Below normal rainfall |
| Central India | Some areas experiencing below normal |
Temperature Forecast
Maximum Temperatures:
| Region | Temperature Expectation |
|---|---|
| Northeast & East Central | Above normal temperatures |
| Northwest & Peninsular | Above normal temperatures |
| West Central India | Normal to below normal temperatures |
Minimum Temperatures:
| Region | Temperature Expectation |
|---|---|
| Most Parts of India | Above normal minimum temperatures |
| Northwest India | Normal to below normal minimum temperatures |
Current Oceanic Conditions
The IMD reports that the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean shows below-average sea surface temperatures, with neutral ENSO conditions currently prevailing. The forecast suggests a potential shift to La Niña conditions by November-December 2024.
| Ocean | Current Condition |
|---|---|
| Pacific Ocean | Neutral ENSO, possible La Niña development |
| Indian Ocean | Neutral IOD conditions |
Extended and Short-Term Forecasts
The IMD provides extended-range forecasts (up to four weeks) for rainfall and temperatures, updated weekly. These forecasts can be accessed through the IMD website.
For further information and updates, visit the IMD website: IMD Extended Range Forecast.
This detailed forecast aims to help citizens and authorities prepare for the upcoming month, particularly during the festive season when weather conditions significantly impact travel and activities.
